Sirius stock has defied the bad economy with its price rising from $.05 to $.70 over the last five months. Good news, right? Yes, but it is still a long way off from the $3 it was at two years ago.
According to dcsilver at the Motley Fool, Sirius has some crazy debt on its hands which makes it sound like we are talking about the nation’s deficit. ”For the next 6 months [Sirius' cash obligations] are $749,000, and $871K in 2010, $1 billion in 2011, $900K in 2012, and an often overlooked $2+ billion in 2013.” That is a lot of money to back up with no a lot of hope in the future to pay for it.
I believe that more than half of Sirius subscribers are Howard Stern fans and with subscribers continually dropping every quarter (with no help from the poor auto sales minus the recent Cash for Clunkers), how many more subscribers will be canceling their subscription in December 2010. Eventhough Howard has yet to make a final decision on the future of his show after the current contract, it is increasingly sounding like he is packing it in and I think show itself these days is representative of that.
Bottom line: Sirius needs to either extend Howard’s contact, have some kind of spinoff show (which is still likely to not be a game saver), work out some better deals with car manufacturers/car owners or hire some new talent that can only be heard on Sirius. But is there enough talent out there to get people to pay $15 a month? Not very likely. Perhaps satellite radio’s future is in its other commodities, such as, music and sports. Sadly, that wasn’t the reason millions of people signed up around January 2006. Perhaps a new business plan is in place or maybe the government will bail them out too.



